This is the Update on the Share Split news. We now have a confirmed date for the share split
Is it worthwhile to build a Portfolio of Youth Players?
When trying to establish a successful portfolio, it’s important to build a portfolio which is capable of hitting all types of dividends.
There are players on the index which are:
- Great for Media Buzz, Poor for Performance Buzz (Paul Pogba being an example)
- Poor for Media Buzz, Great for Performance Buzz (Thiago Alcantara, Parejo & Kimmich)
- Poor for Media Buzz, Poor for Performance Buzz (Jadon Sancho, Gareth Bale, Isco).
If you hold any of the others, I apologise as I don’t mean to be picking on any players, it’s just that for the premium prices, you expect them to be proven dividend earners. Sancho has 2p dividends to his name and costs £8, but as he is a youth player I also added in Bale & Isco who are proven players. In his defence, Bale did mass some Media Buzz, but this was around a year ago when it was reported he may join Man Utd. Since then, he’s been a ghost.
I’m even left to justify my selections myself, as Pogba may only have a poor PB score due to being under the Mourinho regime…
The players which are top of the pile are players which are proven Performance Buzz winners & also able to claim regular Media Dividends. There aren’t many players however, so they do come at a premium price.
Players like this are Neymar, Lionel Messi & Cristiano Ronaldo.
Today, I plan on breaking Performance Buzz right down, establishing which club has proven to be the best since it began.
Picking a Player for Performance Buzz
The difficult thing about picking a Club for Performance Buzz, is that sometimes there are many players all capable of winning it.
Let’s take Man City for example, Kevin De Bruyne has won PB 7 times, David Silva has 6, Mahrez 4, Delph 2, Gundogan & Bernardo have won once.
Only Fernandinho has played for Man City in midfield and not won dividends.
This makes Man City a great club for Performance Buzz, but in order to find a great player, we could do with a dominant winner inside of a team.
Let’s take Lionel Messi as an example for Barcelona, there may be other options which I will look into later in the post.
For Barcelona, Lionel Messi has won dividends from Performance Buzz a massive 15 times, collecting 10 Best players with this.
The next best? Luis Suarez who has won 4 times, collecting just the one Star Player dividend award.
This shows that although a team can be dominant, it doesn’t necessarily translate to being great for Performance Buzz.
Realistically, you would have to hold shares in all of the Man City players if you wanted to enhance your chances of dividends, however in the case of Barcelona, Messi is winning 4 times compared to Suarez winning once, so it’s a lot more predictable.
What do you think makes for the better Performance Buzz Club? Many players contributing, or a specific player dominating?
There can be a case for both…
Should I pick a single player who dominates?
Picking one player who dominates is the strategy I employ, however neither are wrong.
I hold Thiago Alcantara, Toni Kroos & Miralem Pjanic as my super midfielders, although there are certainly options which have earnt more PB, such as Parejo, Banega etc.
There is also a case to add James Rodriguez to this list, but I haven’t seen him complete 90 minutes of football for a long, long time.
You will certainly win more in the long run when choosing the dominant players, as they tend to be the driving force for their clubs.
However, the shortfalls of this strategy are a cause for concern. Although your player should win PB most of the time, there will be times which he doesn’t.
Using Bayern Munich as the example, you would expect for Thiago/James to win for their club. However, there have been 9 separate winners for the midfielder category alone!
Goretzka, Tolisso, Ribery, Robben, Coman, Gnabry & Martinez have all earned dividends.
Injuries also play a part in this strategy, if your player gets injured you’ll be left either selling at a loss, or earning no dividends for the foreseeable future.
Should I spread shares between a good PB club?
If you want to earn dividends little but often, this is the ‘Go to’ strategy.
Picking a handful of players for dominant PB clubs will give you the best chance of earning dividends, as if they are a good Performance Buzz scoring team, they should earn you dividends when they play.
You will need to spread your cash out pretty thinly though, so don’t expect to become rich overnight with dividends.
I do not use this strategy, but there really is no right or wrong answer.
The Law of Averages
When looking at Performance Buzz, statistics really are your best friend.
When I started building my portfolio, I put a lot of players in my watch list who were world beaters on the pitch.
N’Golo Kante was one of these highlighted players. As he won the league with Leicester & Chelsea, was commended by the media for his performances throughout the 2 seasons, I thought that he would be the boss for Performance Buzz.
The reality? He has earnt £0.06 in Performance Buzz, he’s won once in sixty attempts. He’s just not a Performance Buzz player.
I got involved with stats, thanks to Noir, and have improved my game.
With stats, I compiled a list of players who had the best averages. It wasn’t a shock to see some of the Premium Priced players topped this list (You get what you pay for).
I decided that in the long term, picking players with the highest averages would be my best bet. This was & is no guarantee that they would win every time, but in the long run they WILL be the best performers.
It’s safe to say this has paid off to an extent. Neymar and Messi have the highest averages (165 & 145 retrospectively), so it’s no surprise to see them as the top earners in the Performance Buzz standings.
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Which Clubs are best for Performance Buzz?
Using the last 18 months of data, we have came ot the conclusion that the best club for performance buzz is in fact Manchester City.
Showing an impressive 102.3 per game average, they sit top of the charts.
There isn’t much between the Top 5 Clubs though, with just over 10 difference (Although over the course of a season this would prove to be the difference.
It’s worth noting that these clubs aren’t always competing with each other for PB, as Barcelona do play on Sundays quite often.
If you build a portfolio with these clubs in mind, you will be well on the way to success.
For comparison: Man Utd achieved an average score of 75, with Watford averaging around 45.
Cardiff City were sitting at the bottom, with an average of 34.
Not going to be winning much PB with that!
It’s down to you to pick the strategy which works best.
If you are picking players from the best performing clubs, you will definitely earn some dividends along the way.
With the Share Split imminent, a key bit of advice would be don’t be put off by the high prices, the Index seems to only be going one way at present!
Last week, Goal & Assists were announced via a Market Update. Tonight, we have been given a second market update, out of the blue.
FI have given us an update, without hyping it as the greatest news in the world etc.
We are in the trial period for this new dividend. Lots of traders aren’t huge fans of it, but this is mainly down to the fact that long term holds would not qualify for this dividend.
Share split talk is genuine & may occur at some point.
Defenders are booming, read this post to find out why.
Is a Share Split on the cards?
Are Trackers still worth it?
Memphis Depay has proven himself amongst the very best on Football Index, only Ronaldo and Messi are the forwards who have performed better.
Mohamed Salah has returned to the Premier League and Torn it up!
In the lead up to the World Cup, I thought it would be a great time to compare some footballers. I try to stick to similar types of players, similar valued etc wherever possible, as it’s pointless comparing Cristiano Ronaldo to Danny Welbeck!
Today, I have decided to compare; Antoine Griezmann, Paulo Dybala & Timo Werner.
They are considerably young, have the potential to be the next group of Elite players… and they all have plenty of Transfer Rumours waiting.
Positives about Antoine Griezmann:
- He definitely has the potential to become a ‘media man’. Much like Paul Pogba, he likes to cause up a bit of a stir, whether it be on the pitch, or on Social Media. From the small things such as having his own celebration, to the more serious things such as painting himself black and dressing as a basketball player… he certainly knows how to get his name in the papers.
- Griezmann has quite a future ahead of him. He has the Europa League final, World Cup with France, and a potential future transfer looming, meaning he will earn a mega contract.
- There is an £88m release clause in his contract, which is good for any clubs that want to purchase him. It’s relatively cheap in today’s money, comparing £166m for Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele for £130m.
- Although he’s most probably set to sign for Barcelona, there is a small chance that he could move to the Premier League, Man City, Man Utd & Liverpool have all been linked.
- He has dropped in price recently, currently priced at £4.99, compared to his price of £6.23 last month.
- In his current team, Atletico Madrid, they are set up to play very defensively. It’s something Diego Simeone is well known for. Griezmann has won Buzz dividends inside this team, so if he was allowed to play for expressively in a better overall team, like Barcelona, his scores should increase.
- Following from the above, Lionel Messi is not getting any younger, in the long term Griezmann will be the successor to Messi.
Negatives about Griezmann
- If Griezmann signs for Barcelona, he won’t be first choice for free-kicks or penalties in the short term, as Lionel Messi is the man who has full control!
- Although Griezmann is a brilliant player, playing alongside Lionel Messi causes its own problem! Only one player can win Top Forward! With him currently playing at Atletico Madrid, there will be some weeks where they play on a different day to Barcelona, bringing in additional potential dividends. Playing in the same team will potentially affect dividend returns… for both players!
- There is potential for a price drop in Griezmann, however, he has already dropped under £5, I think this is down to the news that he has held secret meetings with the Barcelona President. I can’t see his price dropping much more, as I see him as the ideal Lionel Messi replacement.
Positives about Dybala:
- Dybala has put in some great performances for Juventus, earning multiple dividend returns. He’s not a guaranteed winner every week, but he is the main player for Juventus.
- Dybala operates just behind the main striker. This means he will be on the ball more, providing passes, assists and dribble points, but also often scoring goals.
- He is currently playing in quite an easy league. Leagues such as Serie A and Ligue 1 have some weak opposition, whereas in the Premier League, 20th place can beat 1st place!
- He is still developing, he’s currently a great player but he has the potential to become even better.
Negatives about Dybala
- His nationality! Argentina undoubtedly have a fantastic forward line, Di Maria, Aguero, Icardi, Lautaro, Pavon, Lionel Messi, Higuain & Dybala. The main problem here is that Dybala is far from guaranteed a place in the squad.
- Argentina don’t compete well as a team. Argentina don’t have a world class defence/midfield, meaning they often crash out of tournaments during the early stages. This limits his chances of earning any World Cup dividends, if he was to get a starting spot in the team.
- Premier League links. Normally, it would be ideal for a Top Player to be linked to the Premier League, but Dybala isn’t a player which generates Media Buzz (at present), so playing in a tougher league would be a negative thing for him. The Serie A is significantly easier league than others in Europe.
Positives about Timo Werner
- He is an up and coming prospect for Club & Country. There aren’t many German Natural Strikers to choose from now, so I believe Werner will walk into the World Cup Squad with ease.
- Transfer links. It’s widely known that Klopp is a big fan of Timo. It won’t be long before he has to move clubs, as I don’t believe RB Leipzig will match his ambitions.
- He’s young. At 22, he has emerged as a target for the Premier League. The best thing about this is that he’s not yet reached his peak, so the best is yet to come!
Negatives about Werner
- Werner has a serious health risk. It’s not career ending, but Werner has been Subbed off during big games due to a pain he has with his ears. He suffers from Tinnitus, which isn’t 100% curable. It seems to be during big games where the fans are extra rowdy! We will have to see if this affects him during the World Cup!
- He has promised to stay with Leipzig for another season. Unfortunately this does reduce his value, as Leipzig aren’t a top team in the Bundesliga. This reduces their chances of winning Performance Buzz.
- He’s an old-school finisher. The problem with ‘Finishers’ is that the Performance Buzz scores do not ‘suit’ them as much as a forward such as Messi, Depay or Griezmann, who can dribble past 4 or 5 players before scoring a goal.
- It will take some work for Werner to become a Media Buzz man. Currently , this is dominated by personalities like Pogba, Neymar etc. However, Salah has shown this season that playing well can earn you media buzz. My only concern is that he would get limited Media Coverage playing for Leipzig.
This post is far from a Lemonade Stand. I actually hold all of the above.
I believe these three players have the potential to be the next generation of top players, when Ronaldo and Messi aren’t on the scene. Neymar will always be king of the Index, but I compared these three as they are similar prices.
Griezmann and Dybala probably have more future prospects, as they have the personality of Media Buzz men.
Dividend Returns so far this season:
Griezmann – £0.41
Dybala – £0.61