Are Trackers still worth it?
Memphis Depay has proven himself amongst the very best on Football Index, only Ronaldo and Messi are the forwards who have performed better.
Mohamed Salah has returned to the Premier League and Torn it up!
In the lead up to the World Cup, I thought it would be a great time to compare some footballers. I try to stick to similar types of players, similar valued etc wherever possible, as it’s pointless comparing Cristiano Ronaldo to Danny Welbeck!
Today, I have decided to compare; Antoine Griezmann, Paulo Dybala & Timo Werner.
They are considerably young, have the potential to be the next group of Elite players… and they all have plenty of Transfer Rumours waiting.
Positives about Antoine Griezmann:
- He definitely has the potential to become a ‘media man’. Much like Paul Pogba, he likes to cause up a bit of a stir, whether it be on the pitch, or on Social Media. From the small things such as having his own celebration, to the more serious things such as painting himself black and dressing as a basketball player… he certainly knows how to get his name in the papers.
- Griezmann has quite a future ahead of him. He has the Europa League final, World Cup with France, and a potential future transfer looming, meaning he will earn a mega contract.
- There is an £88m release clause in his contract, which is good for any clubs that want to purchase him. It’s relatively cheap in today’s money, comparing £166m for Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele for £130m.
- Although he’s most probably set to sign for Barcelona, there is a small chance that he could move to the Premier League, Man City, Man Utd & Liverpool have all been linked.
- He has dropped in price recently, currently priced at £4.99, compared to his price of £6.23 last month.
- In his current team, Atletico Madrid, they are set up to play very defensively. It’s something Diego Simeone is well known for. Griezmann has won Buzz dividends inside this team, so if he was allowed to play for expressively in a better overall team, like Barcelona, his scores should increase.
- Following from the above, Lionel Messi is not getting any younger, in the long term Griezmann will be the successor to Messi.
Negatives about Griezmann
- If Griezmann signs for Barcelona, he won’t be first choice for free-kicks or penalties in the short term, as Lionel Messi is the man who has full control!
- Although Griezmann is a brilliant player, playing alongside Lionel Messi causes its own problem! Only one player can win Top Forward! With him currently playing at Atletico Madrid, there will be some weeks where they play on a different day to Barcelona, bringing in additional potential dividends. Playing in the same team will potentially affect dividend returns… for both players!
- There is potential for a price drop in Griezmann, however, he has already dropped under £5, I think this is down to the news that he has held secret meetings with the Barcelona President. I can’t see his price dropping much more, as I see him as the ideal Lionel Messi replacement.
Positives about Dybala:
- Dybala has put in some great performances for Juventus, earning multiple dividend returns. He’s not a guaranteed winner every week, but he is the main player for Juventus.
- Dybala operates just behind the main striker. This means he will be on the ball more, providing passes, assists and dribble points, but also often scoring goals.
- He is currently playing in quite an easy league. Leagues such as Serie A and Ligue 1 have some weak opposition, whereas in the Premier League, 20th place can beat 1st place!
- He is still developing, he’s currently a great player but he has the potential to become even better.
Negatives about Dybala
- His nationality! Argentina undoubtedly have a fantastic forward line, Di Maria, Aguero, Icardi, Lautaro, Pavon, Lionel Messi, Higuain & Dybala. The main problem here is that Dybala is far from guaranteed a place in the squad.
- Argentina don’t compete well as a team. Argentina don’t have a world class defence/midfield, meaning they often crash out of tournaments during the early stages. This limits his chances of earning any World Cup dividends, if he was to get a starting spot in the team.
- Premier League links. Normally, it would be ideal for a Top Player to be linked to the Premier League, but Dybala isn’t a player which generates Media Buzz (at present), so playing in a tougher league would be a negative thing for him. The Serie A is significantly easier league than others in Europe.
Positives about Timo Werner
- He is an up and coming prospect for Club & Country. There aren’t many German Natural Strikers to choose from now, so I believe Werner will walk into the World Cup Squad with ease.
- Transfer links. It’s widely known that Klopp is a big fan of Timo. It won’t be long before he has to move clubs, as I don’t believe RB Leipzig will match his ambitions.
- He’s young. At 22, he has emerged as a target for the Premier League. The best thing about this is that he’s not yet reached his peak, so the best is yet to come!
Negatives about Werner
- Werner has a serious health risk. It’s not career ending, but Werner has been Subbed off during big games due to a pain he has with his ears. He suffers from Tinnitus, which isn’t 100% curable. It seems to be during big games where the fans are extra rowdy! We will have to see if this affects him during the World Cup!
- He has promised to stay with Leipzig for another season. Unfortunately this does reduce his value, as Leipzig aren’t a top team in the Bundesliga. This reduces their chances of winning Performance Buzz.
- He’s an old-school finisher. The problem with ‘Finishers’ is that the Performance Buzz scores do not ‘suit’ them as much as a forward such as Messi, Depay or Griezmann, who can dribble past 4 or 5 players before scoring a goal.
- It will take some work for Werner to become a Media Buzz man. Currently , this is dominated by personalities like Pogba, Neymar etc. However, Salah has shown this season that playing well can earn you media buzz. My only concern is that he would get limited Media Coverage playing for Leipzig.
This post is far from a Lemonade Stand. I actually hold all of the above.
I believe these three players have the potential to be the next generation of top players, when Ronaldo and Messi aren’t on the scene. Neymar will always be king of the Index, but I compared these three as they are similar prices.
Griezmann and Dybala probably have more future prospects, as they have the personality of Media Buzz men.
Dividend Returns so far this season:
Griezmann – £0.41
Dybala – £0.61
My views over the fire-sale of eliminated players.
This post is a mix of just for fun, with some advice on who to watch.
It’s not going to be the greatest analysis, as I won’t be recommending any 17 year old youths, it will be the household names that I believe will be performing well.
Below is my Full Roadmap of the World Cup 2018.
I expect most of the group stages to be fairly straightforward. The Top Nations should go through with ease, there’s no real ‘Group of Death’, where three teams are expected to advance.
- Group A. I expect Mo Salah to drag Egypt through in second place, meanwhile I think that Uruguay will advance with maximum points.
- Group B. Morocco & Iran will offer no competition at all, there’s only one important game in this group and that’s deciding who will finish First. I have gone with Spain. Portugal 2nd.
- Group C. If France don’t advance with maximum points I will be very surprised. Denmark should secure 2nd.
- Group D. Argentina to clean sweep the group. 2nd place was a Toss up between Iceland & Croatia, but after Iceland’s performance in the Euros, I decided to choose them for 2nd.
- Group E. Although Costa Rica and Serbia aren’t weak squads, I can’t see them having enough about themselves to mount a real challenge. Brazil 1st, Switzerland 2nd.
- Group F. Germany will win this group, 2nd place was a toss of a coin between Mexico & Sweden, but I opted for Sweden.
- Group G. As a Patriotic England Fan, I hope we go through, although can’t see us challenging Belgium realistically.
- Group H. Poland will run away with this group, then it has to be Colombia. Too many big names for them not to advance!
This has been predicted as per the FIFA Gameplay Rules. First Plays Second etc.
Round of 16:
- Uruguay vs Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo will be hoping to continue the fantastic form of Portugal by winning the World Cup. They won the Euro’s ranked as outsiders…
- Spain vs Egypt. Mo Salah is a great player, but I don’t think he will be able to affect the result of this match. Spain to progress.
- France vs Iceland. Antoine Griezmann, Pogba et al will show England how to deal with an Icelandic opponent. France to progress, with ease.
- Argentina vs Denmark. Denmark are ranked #12 in the competition & have every chance of providing an upset. However, I can’t look past Argentina. They should scrape through.
- Brazil vs Sweden. I expect Brazil to disassemble Sweden in style in this tie, winning comfortably.
- Germany vs Switzerland. One of the hardest fixtures of the R16, I expect Germany to narrowly win. Switzerland can be a tricky team.
- Belgium vs Columbia. A mouth-watering tie, both teams have World Class players. Belgium to advance.
- Poland vs England. My England Bias is getting the better of me here, Poland will provide heavy resistance and will be a huge threat.
I hope I get time to watch all of these fixtures. Every single one has the potential to leave you on the edge of your seat.
It won’t be simple for dividends, as there’s around 5 World Class players in each side!
- Portugal Vs France. I expect this to be a tough encounter, a repeat of the Euro 2016 Final. However, this time I feel the France side has strengthened, they should squeeze past Portugal. Final Score: Portugal 1-2 France.
- Spain vs Argentina. I can see Spain proving to the World that they are the best, with a emphatic win over Argentina. Final Score: Spain 3 – 0 Argentina.
- Brazil vs Belgium. I can see weaknesses in the Brazil squad. Although they are great to watch, they all want to attack! I expect Belgium to exploit the gaps left from the attacking wing backs, pulling off a surprise win against one of the favourites. Brazil 2-3 Belgium.
- Germany vs England. My bias ends here. There’s no way I can see a shock win against Germany. Even if they suffer injuries, their depth is phenomenal & they play faultless football when it really matters. Germany 2-0 England.
The World Cup finals are amazing. It’s great to see the World top teams play against eachother, if my prediction is anywhere close, Football fans all over the World will be treated to some fantastic football.
- France vs Belgium. I think this will be a close game. I have followed Belgium for a number of years, on paper they have a squad capable of going all the way. However, this has been said for the last two tournaments and they didn’t excel. I believe the French squad will use their experience to grind out a result and advance to the final. France 1-0 Belgium,
- Spain vs Germany. A Match which is worthy of being a World Cup Final itself! Spain are a great side, however in the Euro’s Italy provided a complete football masterclass and beat them 2-0. I think Germany will offer the same masterclass. Final Score: Spain 1-2 Germany.
WORLD CUP FINAL:
- France vs Germany. Whichever team turns up on the day will win this one! On paper they cannot be separated, both teams have World Class Goalkeepers, Defenders, Midfielders & Attackers!
- France haven’t had great recent form. Drawing with Belarus, Losing to Sweden & Drawing with Luxembourg are skeletons which they bring into the World Cup, these results suggest they may have issues breaking teams down. If they can’t beat Belarus, what’s going to happen when Germany are the opposition?
- Germany have no issues with their form. A great stat I have found is that Germany have not lost a single game since 07/07/2016… The Euro Semi Final where they were beat 2-0… by FRANCE!
I think after a terrific 90 minutes of Football, this may be decided by a single goal. It could be in the 90 minutes, but I have a sneaky feeling that this will go to Penalties.
We are all aware of the Germans penalty taking proficiency. They will win the World Cup.
If you are looking for Performance Buzz, you need to choose a team which will be expected to advance to the finals for longevity.
My Top Picks:
France: Griezmann, Pogba.
Belgium: Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Dembele.
Spain: David Silva, Koke, Jordi Alba, Isco
Germany: Timo Werner, Kimmich, Kroos.
My Player of The Tournament:
Griezmann. I feel he is capable of earning various dividends, he is also a major contender for the Golden Boot.
World Class Forward Paulo Dybala has a serious problem on his hands. The Argentina Coach doesn’t know how to utilise him as he plays so similar to Messi, there are many reports he won’t be going to the World Cup.
One of the greatest feelings on Football Index is when your portfolio is on the up.
It is the result of patience, good trading or sometimes luck!
However, sometimes we can’t always be on the player that has risen, but this doesn’t mean the chance to make money has vanished.
I speak (from experience) below.
I like to ‘follow the market’ when I decide who I want to add to my portfolio.
What I mean by following the market, is to check similar players prices.
For example, If I am looking for a forward in the below screenshot, and I want to pick from the Top 10 Forwards.
The reason I have decided the Top 10 is because they stand in contention for Media & Performance buzz.
The first thing I will physically do here is look for the market expanding, but with some players not having yet ‘taken off’.
Now, this isn’t the greatest example as the market completely boomed last weekend, but instantly you can notice a noticeable gap in between Dybala and Mo Salah.
There is over £3.00 difference in between the two players, which, for the current season Dybala has returned £0.43, Salah £1.00 in Dividends.
I would suggest that the gap in price for these two players would close up.
Griezmann has returned just £0.17 this season, but there is forever speculation that he’s leaving Atletico Madrid, so I think his price is high as a potential Barcelona move is on the cards for him.
Mo Salah has risen tremendously this season, but I am reserved to comment on this until I see if he can do this for another season!
He has the potential to either become a ‘Top Player’ if he proves his consistency, or Football Index will experience the fall of a one-season wonder!
I missed out on purchasing Mohamed Salah, I saw him rise over £1 in 12 hours, yet every time I logged onto the app, I felt it was ‘too late’ to buy him.
However, as the Index grows, traders see that this opens up value in other players. If Neymar reached £50 a share, everyone would be clambering to purchase Messi at £10 a share as this shows immense value compared.
If you compare the history of player pricing, they all seem to ‘follow’ eachother with rises.
Mo Salah is quite a poor example here, as the Triple Media days caused his price to rocket (he scored 4 goals the weekend before so was guaranteed to be the talk of the town)
Look below at Ronaldo & Messi.
As one rises, the other also rises. This is because traders see that if one player rises, the player that hasn’t yet risen looks like he has additional value & next to rise.
Ronaldo is a few pound below Messi, but this is because Ronaldo is 32 years old, so there’s a little bit of caution on the traders behalf (Sensible!)
Just as an example, if Messi rose to £20, with Ronaldo being around £8 would cause all the traders to get on Ronaldo, as he’s on par with Messi but pricing shows he’s half the player that Messi is.
I used to become quite frustrated when I missed out on players, or sold too soon.
For example, I sold Salah at I think £1.90. Either way it was definitely less than £2.
Do I regret it? Only because he’s now worth £8!
However, the reason that he’s priced at £8 is because the market has evolved so much.
I would have never planned to keep Salah past £3/£4, as that was Griezmanns price at the time.
However, the whole market has evolved, which now shows Griezmann at just over £6.
I think I will always feel slightly annoyed that I didn’t hold on to Salah, as the prospec of seeing my £1.90 player become worth £8 would be immense.
However, the truth is, during the growth period, I would have definitely sold him around £3 and invested in a better forward.
Although I didn’t hold Salah when he rose immensely, I felt the affects of Neymar & Griezmann rising.
You can spend £6 on a Griezmann, £8 on a Salah or £11 on a Neymar.
It certainly makes Griezmann look like a great option, cheaper than Salah!
This post is quite short, as I am getting it up in a hurry for my followers.
Today I am focused on the mysterious Treble Media Days.
What I have noticed in the past 48 hours, is that some traders are potentially swapping their portfolio, week in week out.
There’s nothing bad about this, it’s a little like ‘Fantasy Football’, however, it can be very risky.
Of which I explain below.
Traders are addicted to profit, which is not a bad thing.
A lot of money comes in the form of dividends, mostly Performance Buzz, as there are 4 Ways to win.
So, when the Performance Buzz is non existent, traders are treated to TREBLE MEDIA DIVIDENDS.
This causes lots of traders to ‘chase the dividends’, essentially removing their whole portfolio of players which could win Performance Buzz, replacing these with players who could win Media Buzz.
Unfortunately, there are very few players who have a great chance of earning PB & MB, Neymar, Harry Kane, Messi, Ronaldo (the elite players).
So, for any non elite performance buzz player, you may have experienced a drop in your portfolio.
Daniel Parejo. This man is a maestro in midfield, however, he doesn’t attract any Media Value at all. RESULT: £0.41 LOSS
This is the perfect example of a Portfolio switch. Not all traders are patient, they want to win buzz daily.
Chasing Media dividends can be a very risky strategy.
The dividend cut-off is 14:00PM, which means traders have plenty of time to see who has scored points early-on, enabling them to Trade and potentially win dividends if the player holds his spot.
This example is Luke Shaw.
Early this morning he had already scored around 460 points, which is quite a lot for Pre-11AM news. If this was to continue, surely he would win Media Buzz for the day.
This is also what the Dividend hunting traders thought, so they decided to put some money into Luke. I will describe below the Risks.
- Luke Shaw started the day at £1.23 per future.
- He Peaked at £1.93, just before the 2pm dividend deadline.
- Mo Salah and Neymar have since shot up the rankings. Salah leads Shaw by 90 points, Neymar trails Shaw by 230 points.
- Since the rise of Mo Salah to #1, Luke Shaw has dropped from £1.93 to £1.47. This is a £0.46 Loss for anyone who got in near the top.
- If you owned him this morning at £1.23, you aren’t in a bad position as you’re £0.23 in profit per share, with the potential dividends.
- Since taking first place in Media Rankings, Salah has risen around £0.17. This could be money moving from Shaw/Salah.
The risky thing about trading in this way, is that the crashes can be devastating.
If you get on near the top end of the price, you may be in for a shock once the dividends have been paid out, as this is when some traders decide to cash out and jump onto the next media prospect.
Things to consider when buying a player that could potentially be knocked out of the Elite Competitions.